Predicting the Election

Here’s a new site that I’ll post on the side as well.  It’s fivethirtyeight.com.  The site was founded by a baseball statistician.  With statistics, one tries to find the probabilities and possibilities of future events.  Baseball is loaded with statistics and they are (usually) reliable.  Well, what if we applied the same concepts, formulas, and ideas to this election?  Check it out.

The stats are updated frequently and statistics are just facts, meaning they are non-biased.  Of course, part of this comes from polls, but with statistics, you try to take out the bias by looking at the “house” projection.  It’s part of the statistic lingo but it’s an interesting site.  By the way, the site predicts Obama winning with a 392 electoral votes.  However, this is only an 89% chance of winning and the popular vote says that he’s at 51%.

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About shaunmiller

I am a Ph. D student at Marquette University. The primary purpose of this blog is to get my ideas out there, and then have other people scrutinize, critique, build upon, and systematize beliefs. This blog will sometimes pertain to what I'm learning in my classes, but it will occasionally deal with non-classroom issues that I'm thinking about as well.
This entry was posted in 2008 Election, Government, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Predicting the Election

  1. shaunmiller says:

    The website predicts Obama will win with 349 electoral votes. Let’s see if this holds out.

  2. shaunmiller says:

    Well, the prediction was slightly off. They predicted that Indiana would go to McCain, but it went to Obama. One of the sections from Nebraska was predicted to go to McCain, but it went to Obama.

    This gives the total for Obama 365.

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